The Denver Broncos travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Monday night in a critical AFC West battle to close out Week 1.
It also features the return of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes just nine months removed from ACL surgery. For the Broncos, it’s an opportunity to assert their rise as the cream of the AFC West after winning the division last season.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Chiefs are consensus 2.5-point favorites, although the line was 2.0 points at several sportsbooks mid-day Monday. That included BetMGM, where the Broncos have been backed by 65% of the spread-line money and 59% of the total bets.
Denver’s moneyline has shifted from +125 to +115 with the Broncos supported by 68% of the money and 75% of the bets.
The 43.5-point Over/Under is nearly even split in both money wagered and total bets. Each of the Chiefs’ past nine season openers against AFC opponents have hit the Over, according to BetRivers, where the total points line also sat at 43.5.
PROP PICKS
–Broncos Edge Rusher Nik Bonitto 1+ Sacks (+106 at DraftKings): Bonitto racked up 14 sacks last season and begins the 2026 season with the prospect of facing Chiefs left tackle Kahlil Benson, the undrafted rookie out of Indiana thrust into the starting lineup with Josh Simmons out because of a back injury. Kansas City will no doubt provide additional help protecting Mahomes’ blind side but Denver will also move Bonitto around seeking advantageous matchups.
–Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III Over 2.5 Receptions (-190 at BetMGM): This has been the most-bet player prop at the book. The Super Bowl MVP caught only two passes in the title game after recording a combined seven in the Seahawks’ first two playoff games. Walker, who didn’t enter the league as a great receiver out of the backfield, saw that role steadily increase along with his workload last season. The Chiefs’ big offseason signing had at least three receptions in five of his final eight regular-season games in 2025.
MAHOMES ‘SIGNED UP FOR THIS’
Mahomes’ opening assignment won’t be a breeze against the Broncos, who have eyes on the NFL single-season team sack record.
“But I’m a competitor, I signed up for this and I’m going to go out there and play football. That’s how I’ve always rolled, no matter what it is.”
The what is the Chiefs’ chance to make an early-season statement. Kansas City was fading from contention before Mahomes was hurt on Dec. 14 and went on to miss the playoffs.
Denver went 14-3 last season, earned the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC and swept the Chiefs in the regular season for the first time since 2014. Mahomes did not play in the 20-13 Christmas Day loss in Kansas City, when the Broncos held the Chiefs to 57 passing yards.
“I think we’re looking at it and expecting someone who’s 100%, someone who’s moving well based on what limited footage you get,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said of Mahomes. “He’s going to be one of those guys that threatens you not only in the pocket, but out of the pocket. So our approach has been pay close attention to what we’ve seen historically film-wise, how we defend not only him but their team.”
Kansas City’s offense is not an exact replica of the one Mahomes operated before his knee injury. The Chiefs signed Super Bowl MVP Walker to replace the running back tandem of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs also drafted Emmett Johnson to restock at the position.
BRONCOS HEALTHY AND RELOADED
Like Kansas City, the Broncos are celebrating the health of their quarterback. Bo Nix was fully cleared to play Monday as he comes back from a season-ending ankle injury in the AFC divisional round. Nix will get reacclimated in the opening game with a few new members of the supporting cast.
The Broncos gave up their first-round pick to acquire speedy wideout Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins and no longer have to contend with standout Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was shipped to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for four draft picks in March.
Nix said he’s fairly certain it is the first time he’s faced any defensive coordinator a fifth time, and he’s even more confident Steve Spagnuolo will throw something at him he’s not expecting.
“I’ve seen a lot of their structure, and I’ve gotten more and more comfortable. It’s the beginning of the year with Game 1. They’re going to throw something at us that we’re going to have to make adjustments to and that is one of our keys. Just get to the sidelines and make adjustments,” Nix said.
“He’ll pressure you at different moments. He’ll kind of lull you to sleep and then bring pressure. He’ll wait until you cross the 50, get in scoring zone, second-and-long yardages. He likes to just get you to third down, get you to third-and-long so he can bring something else exotic.”
KEY STAT
68: That’s how many sacks the Broncos registered during the 2025 regular season — 11 more than any other team and just four off the NFL record of 72 set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. That included three sacks of Mahomes in their Nov. 16 home win.
Mahomes said if he has to take off and run or use his legs to extend plays, he won’t hesitate.
“The place will be rocking,” Mahomes added. “I think that’ll get me even more of a bump, more of an energy boost to go out there and be the best version of myself.”
PREDICTION
Kansas City is favored at home but there is significant concern in starting an undrafted rookie on the blind side as Mahomes makes his return. Even at full strength the Chiefs’ offensive line would be facing a massive challenge in the Broncos’ fierce pass rush. Denver should be able to control field position and keep the pressure ratcheted up. –Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
